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Playoff paths

Central Virginia’s football regular season featured several high-scoring thrillers, many of them involving Monticello. Louisa and the Mustangs to a 41-37 final. Powhatan and Monticello went down to the wire at 40-39. Even Charlottesville and the Mustangs locked up to the tune of a 54-40 contest.

By virtue of the VHSL’s power points system, we’ll get a rematch of one of those battles this week as Western Albemarle and Monticello meet in the Region II, Division 3 quarterfinals. In late September, the Mustangs pulled off a 50-36 victory sparked by Willie James’ late-game interception.

Both teams are looking to make up for how they played in the first meeting. Western Albemarle struggled in the first half before turning it on and Monticello clearly feels like it let down in the second half.

“We came out like it was going to be a cake walk and it wasn’t,” said Monticello two-way starter T.J. Tillery. “We have to come out and play with purpose. We’ve got to hit them and hit them quick and keep the defense up. We don’t want it to be like last time where it was up and down.”

Tillery’s blocking at fullback clears the way for Isaac Robinson, the area’s leading rusher who torched Western for more than 200 yards in the first game, but Tillery’s work on defense will be the key against the Warriors, who’re coming into the playoffs on a four-game win streak. Tillery, free safety Dylan Wood and the rest of the Mustangs’ defense have to put pressure on Western quarterback Kent Henry early and often. Otherwise, the sophomore signal-caller can make teams pay by finding wideouts like first team all-district wideout Austin Ellis and equally dangerous threats like Nick Drapanas and Daniel Kuzjak. He’s also an equally adept runner.

“They definitely bring two aspects to the game because you’re trying to stop (Kent Henry) and cover the routes at the same time,” Wood said. “Their receivers run such great routes that it makes things interesting.”

Kuzjak explained that Henry’s growth has also helped Western’s offense expand as the season as progressed.

“He’s got a lot better not only on his throws, but his reads,” Kuzjak said. “I’m a backside receiver and I’m not the primary route on a lot of stuff but he’s realizing that I’m open a lot and there are open receivers (throughout his progressions).”

That certainly helps. Drapanas’s emergence as just a sophomore is also helping create a more potent offense than Western appeared to possess back in the preseason. He’s also one of a number of Western players seeing time on both sides of the ball (he’s broken up 14 passes this year at cornerback), an easier task this time of year because players aren’t contending with the heat like they were earlier in the year.

“When we had to go both ways in the heat it was just brutal,” Drapanas said. “Now we’re more conditioned, and you don’t get cold standing on the sideline.”

The Warriors, who have been slow starters all season (they fell behind by 14-3 last week even to Louisa before rallying for a win) perhaps had their slowest start against the Mustangs, and it cost them down the stretch.

“It took a half for our kids to realize that we can play with them,” said Western coach Ed Pierce. “I think it was a come-of-age sort of game for them. By the end I think they felt like we can not only play with these guys, we can beat these guys.”

They’ll find out Friday night.

No. 6 Western Albemarle (6-4) at No. 3 Monticello (8-2), Region II quarterfinals, Division 3, 7:30 p.m.

The basics: It’s a rematch of a barnburner of a ballgame earlier this season between the Jefferson District rivals. If it’s anything like the first clash, this one will be high-scoring battle pitting two stylistically divergent offenses that accomplish the same thing — piling up points.

Key matchup: Western’s defense takes on Monticello’s Isaac Robinson. It’s pretty simple. Last time Western couldn’t stop Robinson. He smoked Western for 224 yards and five touchdowns on 26 carries. Robinson has had some great performances this season, but this one was dominant. Western found a way to lockup Louisa, so clearly the Warriors can tackle soundly and halt the run. But they’re going to have to prove it against Robinson.

Who to watch: Western’s Kent Henry. Henry didn’t get a chance to take on the Mustangs in the first game after a first half injury, and before that things weren’t going great for the Warriors’ starter. While Western’s backup, Devin Long, had a fantastic game after taking over, Henry’s presence could help bolster Western’s upset bid. Henry has a little added incentive too — the sophomore who threw for 1,539 yards and rushed for 832 wasn’t named to either All-Jefferson District team.

The line: Monticello by 6. Western is one of the area’s hottest teams with four straight victories, but bottling up Robinson is a tall task.

No. 16 Nottoway (3-7) at No. 1 Goochland (10-0), Eastern Section, Division 2 first round, 7 p.m.

The basics: Western and Monticello’s rematch of a district game is all but dead even. This one, on the other hand, sets up two teams that produced a lopsided result back in early October. After two hard-fought wins in a row that completed an unbeaten regular season, Goochland enters the win-or-game home stage of the year against an opponent they already rolled past 42-19 on October 7. And the Bulldogs all but spotted Nottoway a 7-0 lead when they surrendered an 80-yard touchdown run by Nottoway’s Cobie Branch on the opening play from scrimmage. Don’t expect another flat start by Goochland’s defense. Since that play, including the rest of the Nottoway game, opponents have scored just 60 points total against Goochland, including Amelia’s formerly high-powered attack that piled up just six points against the Bulldogs.

Key matchup: Goochland’s defensive backs take on Nottoway wideout Curtis Hurte. It was too little too late in the last matchup, but Hurte broke off an 80-yard touchdown catch and run against the Bulldogs in the squads’ first meeting. Containing him will be a top priority for Goochland defensive backs like Mason Engel and Zakell Johnson.

Who to watch: Goochland’s Nathan Adams. As usual, he’ll play a key role in defending the run as well as putting pressure on the quarterback. Plus, in the first game between Nottoway and the Bulldogs, he hauled in a 46- yard touchdown and another catch for 29 yards. Leaving Adams open is a dangerous proposition. 

The line: Goochland by 17. The Bulldogs know what they’re facing in Nottoway, and that spells trouble for the Cougars.

No. 12 Stonewall Jackson-Quicksburg (5-5) at No. 5 Buckingham (8-2), Eastern Section, Division 2 first round, 7 p.m.

The basics: There’s no reason for this Buckingham team not to be confident heading into the Eastern Sectional. The Knights settled down nicely after falling to Amelia, seeded third in the bracket, 36-7. They reeled off four straight wins after the loss and then took top-seeded Goochland to the absolute brink, falling 26-24. That should fuel the Knights, who face a stumbling Stonewall Jackson team that’s lost its last two games, including a blowout defeat at the hands of Wilson Memorial last week. Still, all five of Jackson’s losses have come at the hands of playoff teams, so they haven’t had a really bad loss all year. Containing Buckingham, the squad that’s celebrating its first home playoff game in several years, however, is going to be a stiff challenge for the Generals.

Key matchup: Stonewall Jackson’s front seven takes on Buckingham’s multi-faceted run game. Last week against Wilson Memorial, Jackson surrendered 158 yards on just 15 touches to Wilson’s Malik Rucks and another 148 yards to Rucks’ backfield-mate Connery Swift. With Buckingham as a team averaging 7.2 yards per carry on the season behind a balanced rushing attack of Kenneth Johnson, Kyree Koonce and quarterback Tarian Ayers, that could be a huge problem for the Generals.

Who to watch: Ayers, Buckingham’s four-year starter at quarterback. In his last shot at a playoff run, Ayers will have to be the Knights’ rock. He’s been through a number of these late season battles, and the Knights have as good of a shot this year as they have in any of his other runs. Ayers has piled up 2,100 yards of total offense this season, and he’s going to have to keep it up for Buckingham to keep moving forward.

The line: Buckingham by 7. The Knights’ ground game is just too much for Stonewall Jackson and Ayers will keep the Generals’ defense honest with his arm.

Manassas Park (6-3) at William Monroe (7-3) Eastern Section, Division 2 first round, 7 p.m.

The basics: A rematch in Stanardsville. These two Bull Run teams met just two weeks ago at Monroe with the Dragons getting out in front early and hanging on tight. That’s been the Dragons M.O. for so much of the season — hanging on in close games. Whether it was against East Rockingham early in the year, later on against Strasburg, the last meeting with the Cougars — when Monroe gets a lead they do a solid job of hanging on to it. For Manassas Park, it’s all about getting its big back John Byrd rolling. Don’t be surprised if both teams come in looking to play with the same mentality — it’s awfully hard for the other team to score when they don’t have the ball.

Key matchup: The Cougars’ defensive line against Monroe’s offensive front. Manassas has to get past the Dragons offensive linemen and tight ends to try and reverse it’s fortune from last go around. The only way to stop Monroe running back Doug Sizemore is to get to him before he gets a head of steam going. That means getting in the backfield early and often. Otherwise, it means waiting for a freight train to come up the middle, or worse, to round the corner.

Who to watch: Monroe linebacker/fullback Devin Frederick. An interior player on both sides of the ball, sometimes it’s easy for him to get lost in the mix, but Frederick’s tackling and conversely, ability to get up field and engage would-be tacklers is a relatively thankless job. But it’s a job, that when done well, sets the table for Monroe.

The line: Monroe by 6. It’s never easy playing the same team twice, but schematically, neither team will likely change much. Dragons move on with trench warfare win.

Louisa (7-3) at Sherando (7-3) Region II quarterfinals, Division 4, 7:30 p.m.

The basics: There’s no question that the Lions are coming into this game with something to prove after a letdown second half against Western and ended the regular season on a sour note for the Mineral faithful. Turnovers really haunted Louisa last week, which is something that’s quite correctable, a real bonus. The Lions are also built for playoff weather and when they’re on top of their game with Andre Mealy piling up the yards on the ground, they are tough to beat. Sherando’s won three games by seven or fewer points and has three losses (Loudon County, Martinsburg, Skyline) they’ve really struggled offensively. In those three defeats, the Warriors amounted just seven points total.

Key matchup: Louisa’s passing attack against Sherando’s secondary. The Lions are going to run the ball and quarterback Zack Jackson is going to be a big part of that. That said, when Jackson’s able to hit receivers like Peanut Johnson on passes thrown deep down field, it leaves opposing defenses helpless. If Mealy has a big day and Jackson and Johnson can connect, Louisa can put up a big number on Sherando. But without a passing threat, that puts the engine of this offense, Mealy and Jackson running the ball, in a tighter spot.

Who to watch: Lions lineman J.D. Dennis. The senior plays with passion and with his team facing elimination look for him to put it all on the line and get downfield to make holes for Mealy and Jackson.

The line: Lions by 3. This is not an easy matchup for Louisa, but the way things went last week, this team will hit the road with an attitude.

Blue Ridge (5-4) at Christchurch (8-0), VISAA Division 2 semifinals, 1 p.m.

The basics: The Seahorses are the top seed in the Division 2 tournament and in their first meeting with the Barons, Christchurch rolled to a 36-0 win. Blue Ridge comes into this game looking to bounce back after a tough loss to archrival St. Anne’s-Belfield. In the two weeks prior the Barons won both games against Virginia Episcopal and Atlantic Shores thanks to its offense kicking on all cylinders. To take down Christchurch, they’re going to need just that. The Seahorses are coming off a bye week and the spent the week before that putting a rout on STAB.

Key matchup: Blue Ridge’s linebackers against Seahorse runningback/wide receiver Pat Young. The dynamic playmaker has that homerun speed and does a good job of finding running lanes and taking off. Baron linebackers like Lance Grey, Mayn Francisco and others need to keep Young in front of them and make sure he doesn’t round the corner or blow by them in the middle of the field.

Who to watch: Grey. When Grey is effective passing the ball, Blue Ridge’s offense really comes to life. He needs his receivers to come through for him, but after that, he and Francisco can carry the rest of the load with the rushing attack.

The line: Christchurch by 14. Seahorses hold serve at home and bring Blue Ridge’s season to an end.

Woodberry Forest (7-2) at Episcopal (3-5), 2 p.m. Saturday

The basics: There’s not much that can be said about the Woodberry/Episcopal rivalry that hasn’t already been said. It’s the 111th playing of the south’s oldest rivalry, and this one will, as it almost always does, bring out the best in both squads. The Tigers are on a three-game run of victories against Episcopal and the Tigers have survived a minefield of a schedule to post a 7-2 record and now take on the emotionally-charge atmosphere that comes with a clash with the Maroons. 

Key matchup: Episcopal’s defense takes on an emerging Woodberry Forest ground game. The difference the last few weeks for the Tigers’ offense has been the return of senior Jack Sewell and the charge he’s given the Woodberry ground game. Check out this video that includes a run by Hunter Faulconer in addition to Sewell. There’s a physical edge to the Woodberry run game now, and the Tigers have a versatile ground attack with Christian Asher, Swell and Faulconer all bringing a different skill set to the table. 

Who to watch: Woodberry’s seniors. It seems like in this game, more often than even other final games because of the atmosphere, seniors have to rise to the occasion for the winning team. This matchup can be an overwhelming environment and the Tigers’ upperclassmen like Sewell, Nate Ripper, Reid Swearingen, C.J. Prosise (a game-time decision) and Carlson Milikin are going to have to lead the way for the young guys. One thing the Tigers don’t have to worry about when it comes to nerves? Junior quarterback Heys McMath. McMath started against Episcopal as a sophomore and threw for one touchdown and ran for another while efficiently running an offense that helped Woodberry score 29 points.

The line: Woodberry by 10. This probably won’t be easy by any means. Beating Episcopal never is, but the Tigers are playing too well right now to fall to the Maroons.

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