Covenant (4-3) at St. Anne’s-Belfield (4-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: This one is usually a fun one as the area’s two private day schools with football programs lock up. Covenant and STAB have similar records and are both currently in position to make the playoffs in their respective divisions, but the Eagles and Saints are built quite a bit differently. The Eagles are designed for ball control and the power run game with the midline option while the Saints are capable of built on speed and can pile up points in a variety of ways. The Saints are coming off a bye week after beating North Cross 21-15 two weeks back while Covenant knocked off Fishburne on the road last week, bouncing back from a shutout loss at the hands of Blue Ridge two weeks before that. If you take a quick look at the squads’ lone common opponent in Christchurch, the Saints blew out the Seahorses and Christchurch shut out Covenant. That tilts the balance in the Saints’ favor, as does a long history of the Saints dominating this crosstown clash. Can the Eagles’ ground attack finally get Covenant over the hump against STAB?
Key matchup: Covenant’s defensive backs have been a pretty effective group in key spots this year, but this is one of their biggest challenges to date, with Kareem Johnson and Campbell Miller providing the tip of the spear for the Saints’ receiving corps. Containing both of them is a tall task for any secondary. The Eagles’ group led by Stephen Wilder and Josh Klein is likely going to have to play their game of the year as a unit to clamp down on the Saints.
Who to watch: STAB’s Javon Johnson. With teams forced to pay attention to Jalen Harrison in the ground game, Johnson is suddenly a little overlooked. He returned from injury against North Cross and broke off a 65-yard touchdown run to start the third quarter. The lacrosse standout is a handful for opposing defenses in open space because he’s slippery and accelerates through cuts. If Harrison and Johnson are both clicking, STAB’s opponents are in trouble.
The line: St. Anne’s-Belfield by 14. This is a tough matchup for the Eagles, STAB picks up a win here.
Orange County (4-3) at Charlottesville (3-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Both squads are looking to end losing skids in this clash of two of the area’s most run-heavy teams. Orange was 4-1 just a couple of weeks ago but a three-game gauntlet of Albemarle and then Western and then Monticello has put the Hornets at 4-3 and looking for a win in October. Charlottesville is also looking for its first win this month after dropping three straight against Monticello, Albemarle and Powhatan. The Black Knights had to lean on backup quarterback Sam Neale after an injury to Rahkeem Davis, and Neale nearly pulled out a win on the long road trip to Powhatan. Orange couldn’t get their rushing attack going against Monticello last week and they’ll need to remedy that problem against a Charlottesvile defense that has been stifling at times this season.
Key matchup: Orange’s front seven takes on the Charlottesville ground game. The Black Knights can attack on the ground from so many different spots, whether it’s Davis at quarterback, Sabias Folley up the middle or Rashad Brock and Tre Durrett on the edge. Orange just gave up a big night to Monticello’s Darian Bates, which proves they can be susceptible to a polished ground attack. If Orange can find the same stifling defense that hemmed in Albemarle for a big win three weeks ago, that’d be a big lift.
Who to watch: Orange’s passing game. The Hornets have rotated quarterbacks and tried a number of different things to loosen up the box as teams have been loading up against the run for weeks now. Last week the Hornets were a couple of big plays away from making things interesting with Monticello and giving the ground game some breathing room. Orange is going to have to complete a few key passes against a swarming Charlottesville defense just to keep the Black Knights honest.
The line: Orange County by 1. The Hornets’ power attack should be enough to end their slide.
Nelson County (1-6) at Appomattox (7-0), 7 p.m.
The basics: This is the kind of game that makes the Dogwood District such a challenge for Nelson County year in and year out. The Raiders are on a roll right now, with the most recent win a 28-0 road victory over Altavista. Nelson will likely have to play perfect against Appomattox to hang with the Raiders.
Key matchup: Nelson’s offense tries to crack Appomattox’s defense. The Raiders are giving up an astounding 6.8 points per game. That’s a crazy number no matter who they’re playing and the fact that they’re doing against the Dogwood and an out-of-district schedule that included a season opener against Buckingham, makes it all the more impressive. Nelson has a tall task against the Raiders.
Who to watch: Nelson County receiver Cameron Vaughn. Vaughn is the top option in the passing attack for the Governors when they try to take the top off the defense and open things up for the option attack. If Nelson can get Vaughn going, it could help jumpstart an offense that scored just 14 points in the last three weeks.
The line: Appomattox by 28. The Raiders appear to be too much for Nelson, or most any squad on their schedule, to handle.
Blue Ridge (5-1) at Virginia Episcopal (3-3), 2 p.m. Saturday
The basics: Blue Ridge won its fourth victory in a row, dropping North Cross 51-20 in Salem Tuesday in the second victory of a three-game stretch where the Barons play three games in seven days. Now they hit the road to take on Virginia Episcopal, a team fighting for a playoff spot as the fifth-ranked squad in VISAA’s Division III. The Barons could still challenge for a No. 1 seed in Division II, but they need to finish strong. The North Cross game showed what Blue Ridge can be when they’re clicking with Justin Armwood running the show at quarterback. He’s a calm, thinking man’s quarterback who has a solid command of what the Barons are trying to do on offense. That should give VES problems Saturday.
Key matchup: The Barons’ defense takes on Bishops running back George Battle. Blue Ridge gave up some early big plays against North Cross Tuesday before clamping down. Battle is a talented back who has rushed for 868 yards for VES at a 6.1 yard per carry clip, so the Barons will have to hem him in and play assignment football against a team that’s only thrown for 61.3 yards per game.
Who to watch: Blue Ridge tight end Juan Mareco. Mareco hauled in a 16-yard touchdown pass from Armwood which heralded the arrival of yet another pass catching threat for the Barons who already have Malik Johnson, Aaron Brown, Jemeil King and others for Armwood to pick from. At this point, Armwood can just focus on whoever is open because so many players have proven to be reliable options.
The line: Blue Ridge by 7. Tough to play three games in seven days, but the Barons are playing solid football on both sides of the ball right now.
Powhatan (3-4) at Albemarle (5-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: If Albemarle wants to get where it intends to go, these are the kind of games the Patriots have to take care of business in. The Indians picked up a little momentum with a 20-15 victory over Charlottesville last week after a brutal 8-7 loss to Louisa County. The Patriots just blew past Fluvanna County last week for their second win in a row, and perhaps found a little more of an offensive rhythm than they’ve had in recent weeks. If that rhythm carries over, Albemarle’s defense can carry the water already and the Patriots could win comfortably. But both squads have been locked in a series of close battles, and this one could be another one of those kind of games where a big play late is the difference-maker. Ethan Blundin has made a series of those kind of plays for the Patriots and Albemarle knows who they want to get the ball to in crunch time if it comes down to that. Can they pull off another one at home and move to 6-2?
Key matchup: Albemarle’s stingy run defense takes on the Indians’ ground game. While Powhatan will show some good balance, they’re built around the run and Jonathan Caporale is the top threat, having scored a pair of touchdowns in the first half last week against Charlottesville. If the Patriots can clamp down on the run game with J.T. Shorten and the rest of the linebackers working with Nemo Lessesane and the defensive front, Powhatan will have to get out of its comfort zone.
Who to watch: Albemarle’s Sean Scott. Scott has emerged lately as a big play threat, with a punt return for a touchdown and an interception last week against Fluvanna County. He also had a punt return for a touchdown against Louisa that was called back. If Scott keeps providing Albemarle with explosive plays, the Patriots will get increasingly tough to contain.
The line: Albemarle by 7. The Patriots aren’t built just yet to blow very many teams out, but they are battle-tested n close games and should beat the Indians at home.
Monticello (5-2) at Louisa County (3-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Mustangs and Lions have gotten into a lot of battles over the years, but for the last four years Monticello has gotten the better of Louisa. Can the Mustangs make it five in a row in the not-so-friendly confines of the Jungle? Monticello is coming off perhaps its most impressive win to date last week over Orange County and looking for a third-straight Jefferson District win while Louisa just absorbed a 41-19 loss to Western Albemarle at home. The Mustangs looked as complete as they have all season in the win over Orange and the defense was particularly impressive. With Monticello looking to continue to move up the playoff seeding in the Region 3A West, this would be a strong feather in the Mustangs’ cap and keep the momentum going while Louisa needs a signature win as they’ve largely beaten who they were supposed to beat while falling to this year’s toughest opponents, though a ramped up out-of-district schedule has helped made that happen. Can Monticello take care of business and stay unbeaten on the road, or will Louisa get a needed victory?
Key matchup: Louisa’s defense takes on the Mustangs’ adaptable offense. Monticello seems to be particularly adept at taking what the defense gives them. Last week Darian Bates powered the Mustangs. This week it appears that attacking on the ground again might be a good option as Louisa just surrendered 222 yards to Western’s Oliver Herndon last week. If Bates and quarterback Kevin Jarrell can get the run game going behind an offensive line that’s really starting to open up some big rushing lanes, the Mustangs should get the ball moving against Louisa.
Who to watch: Monticello’s front seven. The Mustangs took a big leap forward with a dominant performance against Orange last week, locking the Hornets down for a little more than 100 yards of total offense while neutralizing the Hornets’ ground attack. Now they a face a similarly run-oriented attack in Louisa led by Job Whalen and while the formations will change, if Monticello brings the same hard-nosed approach they did last week, they’ve got the goods to get the job done this week too.
The line: Monticello by 10. If the Mustangs’ defense puts together a repeat performance, the Lions will struggle to move the ball.
Woodberry (5-2) at Benedictine (7-0), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: Arguably the best private school team in the state pays a visit to the top-ranked VISAA Division 1 team’s house for a massive Prep League showdown. The Tigers have not lost to the Cadets since their season opener in 2012, the famed Jacob Rainey return that garnered national attention. That was a while ago. This is the best squad Benedictine has put together since then. They are fast. Woodberry is fast. One of these defenses has to step up and make the difference. The good news for the Tigers is that they are hardly strangers to this type of matchup, and environment given the first five opponents they faced.
Key matchup: The Tigers pass rush against Benedictine quarterback Scott Bracey. The Duke commit is a four star recruit at wide receiver, giving the Cadets a dynamic presence behind center. Woodberry’s defensive line has its work cut out trying to both contain him and keep him from making big plays in the air. Thankfully, this unit can count on a quality secondary to help out in the passing department, but the bottom line is that they will have to play like did against Bishop McNamara to keep the Cadets from putting up a big number. So far only Georgetown Prep has held Benedictine to less that 25 points. Bracey has engineered five 40-point plus games so far with his legs and his arm. It’s simple to label him as the critical target, but awfully difficult to stop him. This falls under the old ‘easier said than done’ argument. Of course, the exact same argument against Bracey can be made for Benedictine’s defense as they have to find a way to stop Tigers quarterback Lindell Stone. We’ve presented that argument with regards to him and his receivers countless times here, so you should have that committed to memory by now — but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t apply again.
Who to watch: The yellow flags. Yes, a game of this importance is undoubtedly going to come down to a drive that is either prolonged or killed by some kind of penalty. The Tigers have been very disciplined so far, and that’s a staple of the program. They usually keep their cool in these types of games. Benedictine has had some struggles (albeit not this year yet) of shooting itself in the foot. If the film ‘Goodfellas’ taught us anything it’s that the two most important rules in life are never rat on your friends and always keep your mouth shut. The Tigers do a nice job of avoiding those kind of mindless costly penalties, which often come from disregarding rule number two. If they keep it up, it will go a long way. Benedictine will need to give itself an equal playing field by not getting too excited and avoiding a drive killer, or on the other side of the ball, a drive maker.
The line: Woodberry by 1. The Tigers come in a bit more battle tested, having faced a good deal more adversity. They also have won the last two games and four of the last five. This is no gimme though. This is, in an ideal world, a VISAA D1 title game.
Collegiate (1-5) at Fork Union (3-4), 3 p.m.
The basics: The Cougars took it on the chin two weeks ago at home against Woodberry, but only after a strong first half. They’re coming off a bye week to face a physical Fork Union team that will be eager to bounce back after a tough showing on the road against Liberty Christian. Collegiate’s playoffs hopes are far fetched at this point, but Fork Union could still squeak in if they finish strong. This is a must win with road trips to Benedictine next week and then another trip to play Woodberry. A slip up here probably ends the Blue Devils postseason potential.
Key matchup: Fork Union’s secondary against Collegiate’s spread offense. The Blue Devils have talent in the secondary, but as we saw with the game against St. Christopher’s talent is only half the battle. FUMA has to be disciplined back there. Now this pass rush is exceptional with josh Nevers leading the defensive line, so the Cougars won’t have much time to get the ball out, but nonetheless, it’s hard to offer safety help all over the field against a team that likes to roll out five receivers at a time. So if the Blue Devils secondary is up to the task, it will go a very long way.
Who to watch: Fork Union’s receiving corps. The Cougars have shown in previous games that they will blanket a team’s top target and so Taurus Carroll, FUMA’s leading receiver, is going to have to work through some schemes. But what the Cougars haven’t been able to do this year is stop teams from going to a second receiver and avoid that exploitation. Adisa Gitten-Smith is a great option as sort of an H-back. Behind him, Logan Justice is a legitimate threat too. If quarterback Chris Basso can key on them and the Blue Devils get their usual production out of the ground game, they’ll be just fine.
The line: Fork Union by 3. Playing at home against a team that’s struggling, the Blue Devils respond to the situation they’re facing — that must win.
Strasburg (4-3) at Madison County (2-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Rams rolled over Warren County last week and the Mountaineers lost a heartbreaker with rival William Monroe on the road in the last minutes of the game. Just a few weeks ago, Madison looked poised be in position for a playoff berth. Now on the outside looking it, but only just barely, the Mountaineers need a win badly and probably two over these next three weeks. Strasburg is beatable, Mason is beatable, but the season finale with Clarke County looks like a reach. So Madison needs to do itself a favor and find a way to take down a Rams team that’s just bounced out of a 3-game losing streak. And with Madison’s struggles against the run, this defense has to come up with some big stops in the middle of the field.
Key matchup: The Rams linebackers against Madison’s Isaiah Smith. So here’s the thing with Smith — if you don’t get him at the line of scrimmage, he’s going to break off one big play after another. He’s got the moves to make any man miss. He’s gritty and sheds more tackles than someone his size should be able to. Once he’s at full speed, he’s off and running, or on the way to breaking some poor defenders ankles. But having said that, if you can keep him to limited yardage, Madison’s offense isn’t the same.
Who to watch: The Madison receiving corps. Dre Twyman was knocked out of the game against Monroe in the last minutes. If he’s not able to go, he’s going to be missed. That will leave Dylan Breeden as the Mountaineers’ best target. He’s big and when he gets downfield he’s a load to try and stop. So either way, Madison could use a big game out of their tight end, but even more so if Twyman is still missing. The passing game needs to provide Isaiah Smith a little bit of breathing room from a loaded tackle box.
The line: Strasburg by 3. The Rams run well and that’s bad news for Madison. But don’t be surprised if the special teams unit or Smith’s big play ability on offense makes this a closer game or even provides enough to swipe that coveted win this team sorely needs.
Monroe (1-6) at Central Woodstock (4-3), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Dragons shook the monkey off their back and picked up that elusive first win of the year. Now they’ve got a tall task as the Falcons just reeled off their third straight win where they’ve put up 40 or more points. Central’s three losses are to quality opponents in Skyline, Turner Ashby and Clarke County, so Monroe has to be ready to play at its best. We’ve seen the Dragons play strong against Clarke, so they’re capable of matching Central here, but they can’t give up the offense that they did against Madison as they were nearly upset in their homecoming in the final minutes and played from behind until the third quarter.
Key matchup: Monroe’s rushing defense against Falcons running back Hank Hoover. He’s the bell cow back for Central and the Dragons not only have to bottle him up, they have to bring him down. While Monroe was solid up the middle against Madison last week, they gave up big plays on the edge, so they have to improve in that department.
Who to watch: Monroe’s Malik Mallory. Coach Jon Rocha declared that he’s most comfortable with Monroe being a physical running team and that means leaning on Mallory, heavily. He was great against Madison, but he’s going up a bigger front here. He’ll need help from his line, but if Mallory can keep pace with Central’s Hoover, Monroe’s got a good chance to keep up with this offense. Mallory runs hard and can wear down a defense on his own when he gets to that second level. He just needs the opportunity to get to that level.
The line: Central by 4. The Dragons are bit over matched on defense here and the Falcons are in a bit of a groove. Tough matchup after last week.
Goochland (4-3) at Central Lunenburg (5-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: So yea, we talked last week that you didn’t want to be that team playing a 3-3 Goochland team that’s better than its record and Nottoway got to learn that lesson the hard way as the Bulldogs rolled to a 38-8 win and didn’t surrender a touchdown until the running clock was on in the fourth quarter. The Chargers have won two in a row, beating Nottoway and Bluestone, but they have their hands full with a Goochland team looking to cement a top seed in the Region 2 East bracket.
Key matchup: The Chargers front against the Goochland ground game. That might sound a bit obvious and general, but in Central’s two losses (Buckingham and William Campbell) they gave up 70 points and then 41 respectively. They were simply run over. Guess what Goochland’s up to offensively, trying to establish going into the playoffs? The Chargers can’t ignore the Bulldogs passing game entirely, but they don’t have a chance in this one if they don’t find a way to play stay-at-home defense and slow down Marcus Burton, Calvin Martin and Wyatt Smith. Those three had nearly 200 yards of offense on just 15 combined carries last week. So there it is in a nutshell.
Who to watch: Goochland’s front seven. So they rolled past Nottoway, but still gave up 255 yards on the ground. Obviously a lot of that came when the game was well put away, but the Bulldogs need to be stout up front. They’ve got a cog in KK Timerblake but they need more than that. With the playoffs looming, Goochland needs to shore up against the run as the teams they’ll face in Region 2A East are all going to try and key in on that. It wasn’t so long ago that the Goochland defense set the tone for this team. It will be interesting to see how this unit closes out the regular season.
The line: Goochland by 7. The Bulldogs still have a lot to play for playoff seeding wise while Central is safe as a Group 1A squad. Look for Goochland to keep its fangs out from last week.
Fluvanna County (0-7) at Western Albemarle (6-1), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Flucos were shutout by Albemarle last week while Western managed to pick up a double-digit win over Louisa County on the road. The Warriors may be missing Sam Hearn at quarterback after he was knocked out late last week with a concussion and had to be taken to the hospital for precautionary reasons. But as good as Hearn is, and as important as he is to this team, especially offensively, the Warriors’ defense is poised to have a big game here.
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s offensive line takes on the Crutchfield-brothers-led defensive line. The Warriors are big up front. They are fast. They are physical. The Flucos have struggled against the bigger units like Western’s and so they have their work cut out. Because while Hearn might not be in the mix for the Warriors offensively, there are enough pieces around on offense for the Warriors to pile up the yardage offensively. This defensive line looked its best against Monticello, but that was four weeks ago, so look for them to try and sharpen their teeth with the regular season winding down.
Who to watch: Western’s Henry Kreienbaum. He’s usually the backup to Hearn. He’s a tremendous baseball player, and so logically, you’d think he’d have the arm to pick up where Hearn left off, and just a year ago he and Hearn were locked in a preseason quarterback battle. As one of the team’s top receivers, obviously he can run. But how much will Western let him do as they look to get healthy? He battled an injury early in the year himself. He could just hand it off to running back Oliver Herndon all game, but again, another player that’s been dinged up and missed time because of injury. How the Warriors decide to use Kreienbaum and/or receiver Derek Domecq who could also see time will be very interesting. There’s no question they want their full compliment of weapons come that second week of November.
The line: Western by 20. The Warriors defense carries the flag here, the offense takes it easy and shuffles the deck, evens out the touches and gets its reserves some valuable experience.
