Albemarle (2-5) at Western Albemarle (3-4), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: This one may not be a must-win, but with both teams still scheduled to play Louisa later this year, it might as well be. Western is fighting for its playoff life while the Patriots are trying to stay out of the Region 5D eight seed and avoid playing Mountain View in the first round of the playoffs. Albemarle has gotten things going of late, beating Fluvanna last week on a last second field goal for the Patriots’ second-straight win. Now they’ll look to improve their playoff position with a win over archrival Western and they’ll need a big effort to pull it off because the Warriors are suddenly picking up some steam after surprising Fluvanna County two weeks ago. Western beat Charlottesville 38-13 last week and is slowly clawing its way back into the Region 3C playoff picture. A win over the Patriots would be a huge leg up, and with Louisa and Orange left on the schedule, it’s one of Western’s best chances remaining to pick up a playoff berth powering victory. This one is almost always close, almost always coming down to the final play. Last season was the rare exception. Both teams seem to have gotten on track, Albemarle by getting healthy, Western by getting better execution from its offensive line in particular, but also across the board. Is the return of Mahki Washington, the emergence of Ebenezer McCarthy and the impact of Jake Rombach enough to turn the tide permanently this year for the Patriots? We’re about to find out Friday night.
Key matchup: Albemarle’s secondary takes on Western’s tall wideouts. Nolan Pitsenberger and Kyshon Howard are top notch back end defenders, each capable of reliable coverage as well as game-changing plays. They’re physical and they fly around and play bigger than their size. But this week they face the unique challenge of trying, along with the rest of the secondary, to mark Western’s 6-foot-2 Breaker Mendenhall and 6-foot-3 Will Mitchell. Look for Western to exploit those advantages when they can and take some shots down field. It’ll be up to Albemarle’s defensive backs to play smart and counter correctly.
Who to watch: Albemarle quarterback Jake King. There’s actually a little bit of parallel here between King and Western’s own signal caller Carter Shifflett. Last year, Shifflett was perhaps the area’s most improved player as the year went on, with his game taking drastic steps forward in the second half of the season. Now King is pulling off a similar performance, clicking with receivers like Robert Jones and Torry Green and generally avoiding the mistakes that plagued him early on. King threw for 135 yards and two touchdowns last week and while the numbers aren’t eye popping, they’re more than enough to keep defenses from loading up against Thunder and Lightning in the ground game (Washington and McCarthy).
The line: Western by 1. Truly a push, but Western beat Fluvanna 35-21 in Palmyra and Albemarle only won by a game-winning field goal. That gives the Warriors a slight edge.
Charlottesville (0-8) at Monticello (1-7), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: Both these teams share some situations. Both teams are banged up. Both teams have had their fair share of frustrating losses. Last year, this was the game that prevented Charlottesville form going 1-9. Getting it done this week with the wild rash of injuries they’ve endured won’t be easy, but the Mustangs are definitely banged up too. The Mustangs rely heavily on Fields to generate dynamic plays while Charlottesville’s system is a touch better suited to withstand injuries because of how they spread the ball. This one will likely come down to who can overcome the previous weeks’ injuries and losses. What previously unknown hero will emerge to be a difference-maker.
Key matchup: Monticello’s front seven takes on Charlottesville’s triple option. Last week, Orange County’s spread ground attack gave the Mustangs all kinds of problems. Charlottesville runs the ball nearly exclusively no matter what the opposition decides to throw at it, so it won’t be an adjustment when the Black Knights go after the Mustangs’ weakness against the run. If Charlottesville can get Jaleom Adams-Mallory and whoever steps in for Isaiah Washington going, it’ll be a big lift for the offense.
Who to watch: Monticello’s Chase Hummel. Hummel’s ability to throw allowed a banged up Monticello squad to put Malachi Fields out on the boundary and get him in space. Hummel’s versatility could be key to pulling off a win this week.
The line: Monticello by 1. The Mustangs get the slight edge but this one is a toss up.
Fluvanna County (4-3) at Louisa County (7-0), Friday 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Going into this season, this appeared to be one of the marquee matchups on the Jefferson District slate. A couple of district losses for the Flucos have taken some of the juice away but make no mistake, everyone in this district knows measuring themselves against Louisa is a big opportunity and the Flucos are no exception. Louisa jumps back into JD play after stepping out for a week against Kettle Run. The Flucos have to rebound from a hard luck loss to Albemarle with a field goal as time expired the difference. Positives in that loss included a defense that made Albemarle work to move the ball and the running of quarterback Kobe Edmonds. The Flucos will need more things functioning well on offense if they’re going to hang with Louisa. The Lions are too good defensively to allow one element to beat them, so look for the Flucos to try and spread the ball or take to the air even from the jump. The Lions don’t have many adjustments to make. Playing against the Wing-T requires responsibility football and Louisa is particularly adept at that because of their own knowledge and experience with the single wing. If the Flucos come out locked in and can make some noise early, it could potentially put Louisa on its heels. The key though is how you respond when Louisa inevitably roars back. Because they’re going to roar.
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s front seven takes on the Louisa ground attack. It’s hard to know exactly what’s going to happen when you line up against Louisa’s run game. You could get a dose of the classic single wing with a of Jarett Hunter picking his way through creases between the tackles. You could get a bunch of Robbie Morgan or Kalup Shelton, slippery backs whose power is present but deceptive. Or you could get the raw power and energy of Alex Washington, a big back with all kinds of speed. It’s just an incredibly challenging array of backs to prepare for, so Fluvanna’s defense has its work cut out for it. The Flucos have been on a little bit of a roller coaster on that side of the ball lately — they’ve got to be fired up for this challenge.
Who to watch: Louisa County’s Adrain Williams. Williams has been part of the Louisa story for awhile, known both as a big back option for the Lions as well as a solid defensive tackle. This year he’s emerged as a run-stuffer in the interior. Williams is an explosive hitter and he doesn’t need five yards of run-up to deliver a blow. He can either knife into the gap or he can stand an opposing offensive lineman up and read and react. He’s one of the players who proves that Louisa is just awfully good at every position.
The line: Louisa by 21. The Lions are firing on all cylinders.
Madison County (0-7) at Page County (5-2), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: Madison continues to push forward in a new system with a lot of fresh faces still trying to learn the ropes. Last week they absorbed a 53-16 defeat at the hands of Strasburg and Page on the road isn’t a much easier task. A couple of more winnable games exist beyond Page with Rappahannock and East Rockingham to close out the year, but Page’s old school offense presents a unique challenge. It’s the kind of offense that toughness and hard-nosed play can carry a defensive effort against. If Madison can get up for this one, they could throw a wrench in things for the Panthers.
Key matchup: Madison’s defense takes on Page County’s multi-faceted wishbone attack. Any number of different players can tote the rock for the Panthers. Blake Turpen, Trey Knight and Mikey Cash are just the tip of the spear. The Mountaineers have to play responsibility football, because if Page notes a weakness, a player not staying at home, any slip, they have a way to exploit it.
Who to watch: Madison’s offensive line. With an injury this year to foundational lineman Jacob Sacre, the Mountaineers have had to retool up front a little. How that unit develops and how the young players up front find their stride will likely determine the program’s direction going forward.
The line: Page by 21. Too tough of a matchup for the Mountaineers.
Buckingham County (6-1) at Amelia (4-3), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: The Knights get their biggest test since Goochland back on September 13 with Amelia on the road. The Knights have played their way into position to host a playoff game in Region 2B, but staying ahead of Clarke and Page County will require a few more wins with three games left for the Knights to get it done. Run the table and Buckingham could find itself hosting and in position to challenge for a region title since they’re just a tenth of a point behind Strasburg and Luray. The Knights know their formula — stingy defense and clock controlling ground attack. If they keep that disciplined approach rolling this has the potential to be a monster finish to the season for the Knights.
Key matchup: Buckingham’s defensive backs take on Amelia’s spread approach. When Goochland played the Raiders back in early October, the Bulldogs picked off a pack of passes to turn the tide. If the Knights can similarly come up with turnovers, it’ll go a long way toward pushing Buckingham’s record to 7-1.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s Xavian Gough. As if opposing teams didn’t have enough to worry about on the ground with longtime starter Walter Edwards and Tae Toney getting it done in the rushing attack. Gough has come on lately, carrying the ball for a pair of touchdowns and 58 yards on just six touches a week ago against Randolph-Henry.
The line: Buckingham by 14. The Knights are playing too well to slip here.
Nelson County (4-4) at William Campbell (3-4), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: Nelson got a win they had to have last week. With Appomattox looming to close the regular season, this might be another must-win for the Governors if they’d like to get into the playoffs for the first time 2002. William Campbell got two of its three wins against struggling squads and lost to the Chatham squad Nelson beat last week. Transitive property tilts in the Govs’ favor. Nelson’s offense has been quite good of late and the defense is starting to make critical stops in order to prevent the Governors from getting trapped in a shootout situation. If the offense keeps clipping along and the defense tackles soundly and forces the opposition to snap the ball again, Nelson could find itself playing when it truly matters in a few weeks.
Key matchup: Nelson’s front seven takes on William Campbell quarterback Jermiah Smith. Smith is the kind of dual threat quarterback that can give any defense problems. Nelson will have to either spy him with a single player or put together a team plan to keep Smith hemmed in. The Governors may opt for a little of both.
Who to watch: Nelson’s Felix Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been a solid threat on the ground as a running back, but last week he had 12 tackles that proved he can be just as effective on the other side of the ball. He even had a kick return touchdown from 65 yards out, further establishing that he’s a complete football player. With Brandon Jamerson posting a pair of sacks against Chatham, the Nelson defense is starting to catch up to the offense and Rodriguez is a big reason why.
The line: Nelson by 7. Governors will have to work for this one, but it’s a winnable game.
Fork Union (4-3) at St. John Paul the Great (1-7), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: Fork Union has played its way back into the VISAA D1 playoff race with two-straight wins over Trinity Episcopal and Collegiate. Now they’ve just got to close the deal and hope for a little help. That starts with beating Saint John Paul the Great. A win by Collegiate over Norfolk Academy would likely also help as would a Woodberry win over Trinity Episcopal. Both NA and TES still sit above the Blue Devils. One will have to move down if Fork Union is going to rise. Both Trinity and Norfolk Academy also blew out Saint John Paul the Great, and since Fork Union edged out the Titans just two weeks ago, the transitive property of prep football is strongly weighing in Fork Union’s favor.
Key matchup: St. John Paul the Great’s secondary tries to keep track of Elijah Hawks and Montigo Moss. Hawks had five catches for 120 yards and four touchdowns last week while Moss had three catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns. It was tremendous output by both wideouts, and Moss could cross the 1,000-yard mark this week. Containing either of these two would be tough, both is a really difficult task.
Who to watch: Fork Union defensive end Rockland Brown. Brown had seven tackles including 2 sacks and three TFLs against Collegiate. We already knew what kind of player Myles Brickhouse was at the other defensive end spot coming into this year, and he had four TFLs and three sacks against Collegiate. When paired with Brown they make one of the area’s most formidable pass-rushing duos.
The line: Fork Union by 21. The Blue Devils should cruise here.
William Monroe (3-4) at Warren County (2-5), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: That win over Skyline is definitely one that William Monroe had to have. Coming off the loss to Brentsville, the Skyline game almost became a must win for the Dragons. They got the job done and now they’ll continue moving through a winnable Northwestern District slate facing a 2-5 Warren County squad this week. Warren may be more trouble than their record indicates though, because Warren nearly won a shootout with Brentsville a week ago. The Dragons will have to impose their will on the game and get the pace and control where they like it — grinding the clock on offense. If they can accomplish that, they’ll be a big part of the way home to picking up another key win.
Key matchup: Warren’s front seven takes on Dupree Rucker. The Dragons are undoubtedly going to hand the ball off to Rucker as much as possible. He’s got a string of 200+ yard games because they feed their standout back. Can Warren scratch together an answer for the slippery Monroe tailback?
Who to watch: Monroe’s Jared Knights. Knights doesn’t get a chance to throw often, but when he does he’s been pretty on point. He and Logan Barbour have developed a potent connection when called upon and that keeps defenses honest. But Knights also does so many little things every play, particularly with regards to taking care of the football.
The line: William Monroe by 3. A win here would really help cement Monroe’s playoff chances.
St. Anne’s-Belfield (5-1) at Kenston Forest (6-3), Friday 7 p.m.
The basics: In the aftermath of its loss to Covenant, STAB has to stay confident. They appear to clearly be the team with the best shot to knock off the Eagles, and so they’re likely to get another shot at Covenant. That journey starts with taking care of business on the road against Kenston Forest, the Saints’ final regular season matchup. The Kavaliers also gave Covenant a good game back in September in a 54-26 loss, so expect that Kenston will be fired up for a shot at potentially moving up in the VISFL seeding. STAB will surely be ready though, and they’ve got too many weapons for Kenston Forest to handle like Amani Woods, Nic Reese and Elijah Johnson.
Key matchup: Kenston Forest’s secondary tries to contain STAB quarterback Nolan Bruton. The Saints’ sophomore signal-caller has proven capable of making teams pay for trying to load up against Amani Woods, throwing seven touchdowns on the year. He’s also not mistake prone — he has just one pick on the year — and that’s a big positive for the Saints who want to get the job done on the ground.
Who to watch: STAB’s Nic Reese. Reese has accounted for 971 yards of total offense this year between passing, receiving and rushing. The Saints’ X-factor is just too good of an athlete and too craft for most teams to slow down.
The line: STAB by 21. The Saints can take out some frustration here.
Goochland (6-1) at Blue Ridge (6-2), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: This game was the result of the Fork Union/Goochland scheduling issue where the Blue Devils double booked and Goochland ended up being left in the cold. When Randolph Macon Academy canceled its season, that opened the door for the Bulldogs to get a 10th game on the schedule. It’ll be an odd time to play on Saturday afternoon, but it should be an interesting challenge in a super rare public/private matchup. Blue Ridge will face a physical, sound defensive front, and a hard-nosed offensive line. How the Barons answer that bell may end up being the difference maker. They’re going to have to play big time football or Goochland is going to get down hill on the Barons and get the ball moving. This should be another chance for the Barons, who should make the VISAA D1 playoffs, to work out some kinks and find some answers before trying to make a run for a state title.
Key matchup: Blue Ridge’s wideouts take on Goochland’s ballhawking defensive backs. The Barons have a ton of options at wideouts and they’re such big threats that we essentially talk about them every week. Lance Gaskins, Iceysis Lewis and Maliq Brown are electric options as pass catchers. Now they square off against a secondary that averages more than a pick per game with four different players (including Haiden Mccourt, C.J. Towles and Devin McCray) with two picks on the year. This is a crazy good secondary, and now they get a chance to test themselves against a crazy good group of wideouts. This battle within the battle should be a lot of fun to watch.
Who to watch: Goochland’s C.J. Towles and Blue Ridge’s Kenyon Carter. Whichever quarterback can keep their team out of trouble spots will likely walk away with the win in this one. Both defenses are pretty solid, so this might come down to avoiding mistakes. Towles was electric last week, going 11-for-12 with 144 yards, so he comes in with the hot hand. But Carter is so good at extending plays and with the size advantage at receiver, that may be a difference maker. The Bulldogs need the pass rush to get home.
The line: Goochland by 6. The Bulldogs’ defensive is maybe the difference maker here.
Trinity Episcopal (6-3) at Woodberry Forest (0-6), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: The Tigers nearly upended Benedictine last week, falling 27-26 while running a wild play at the end of the regulation, a lateral play that nearly allowed the Tigers to steal the win. But at this point, the Tigers have lost the last four games by seven points or less, and now they face a Trinity Episcopal squad with impressive wins over Collegiate and St. Christopher’s that’s also hungry for a Prep League win after getting edged out by Fork Union two weeks ago. Can the Tigers finally put it all together? The near miss against a powerful Benedictine team would indicate that Woodberry is far from done this season, and with the Episcopal game still hanging out there that can erase a lot of frustration, Woodberry certainly shouldn’t be packing it in. Beating the Titans and talented sophomore quarterback Jack Toscano this week would go a long way toward getting some momentum going before facing off with the Maroon.
Key matchup: Woodberry’s passing game takes on Trinity’s secondary. Last week, three picks were costly for the Tigers in a 27-26 nailbiter. If quarterback Ben Locklear — who threw for 390 yards and two touchdowns in that performance — can minimize the picks against Trinity, it could be a major difference maker. But it won’t be easy with guys like cornerback Jalen Smith roaming the secondary.
Who to watch: Woodberry’s Luke Blundin. Staley Wideman leads the Tigers with 505 receiving yards, but Blundin has the higher average yards per catch with 16.9 yards per reception. If Blundin can keep causing damage as the passing game keeps progressing, that could also open up things for a ground attack that’s only averaging 4.03 yards per carry.
The line: Woodberry by 1. Woodberry has come so close all year. This feels like the week they get over the hump.
Greenbrier Christian (6-3) at Covenant (6-0), Saturday 1 p.m.
The basics: Covenant passed a major test last week against St. Anne’s-Belfield and now gets a chance to host a Greenbrier team that shouldn’t pose much of a threat in the Eagles’ final regular season game that’ll serve as senior night. The Eagles have essentially sewn up the VISFL’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs with the STAB win and after this week they’ll jump into the postseason where they’re likely on a collision course for a rematch against the Saints. The Eagles’ offense is clicking at a high rate and the defense is producing some big plays in addition to clamping down on most opponents. Can Covenant sustain this effort through the postseason? All signs point to yes.
Key matchup: Greenbrier’s linebackers look to hem in Covenant’s Jonas Sanker. This is the crux of every clash with Covenant. If the opposing teams linebackers can’t Sanker — and few can — it’s going to get tough fast. Sanker accounted for a pile of touchdowns and 427 yards of total offense last week against STAB and STAB hammered Greenbrier 55-19 back in early September.
Who to watch: Covenant’s Michael Asher. Asher was a back-breaker for the Eagles against STAB last week, with two touchdowns catches including a 55-yarder right after STAB cut the lead to six early in the second half. Asher’s deep threat credentials are well established and Covenant is figuring out how to take advantage.
The line: Covenant by 21. The Eagles are just too talented and too deep for anyone on their schedule beyond STAB to pose a serious threat.
