Class 4 Girls Basketball State Semifinals: Louisa County (13-0) at Grafton (10-0), 7 p.m.
The Basics: When Louisa County’s roster started to come together this season, this was the exact kind of campaign that everyone inside and outside the program started to envision. The Lions are enjoying their best season in 25 years, with a Region 4B title already under their belts, won with a fourth quarter surge led by Olivia McGhee against powerhouse program Monacan. Now the Lions will have to hit the road for the first time this postseason with a state semifinal trip to Yorktown to take on Grafton. The Clippers have largely put a hurting on their schedule, with a season-opening 17-point win the closest anyone has come to knocking Grafton off track. But they’ll have their work cut out for them with the one-two punch of McGhee who’s averaging 23.8 points per game and pulling down 10.5 boards per contest and Sylvie Jackson who is scoring 19.6 per game while also nabbing 4.2 steals per game. There’s just not a lot of good plans for trying to stop the Lions’ stars especially when Alexis Chapman, Lydia Wilson or Taylor Fifer are cashing in on open lay-ups when defenses collapse on McGhee and Jackson. That’s a big reason why they’re both averaging north of 3.5 assists per game. The Lions will have to deal with Kiara Bomboy, who’s averaging 16.4 points per game and Louisa proved last week that it doesn’t just have to use its vaunted press to lock up defensively as they got it done in the halfcourt against Monacan after pulling off the press early. Keeping Nikki Gibson, who’s averaging a double double at 11.9 points and 11.1 boards per game from going to work in the paint will also be crucial and disrupting sophomore Maesyn Blaylock who dishes out 4.8 assists per game won’t be an easy task.
Key Matchup: Sylvie Jackson versus whoever has to guard the sophomore. Most high school girls teams can contain or take away one elite player and with McGhee suiting up for the Lions, that’s probably where the gameplan has to start. But Jackson makes focusing on McGhee impossible because she can also light up an opposing defense. While Grafton’s defensive numbers indicate they can lock things down, they haven’t faced a one-two punch like McGhee and Jackson. Figuring out how to mark Jackson has left several local opposing coaches with some restless nights, and Grafton just gets one shot at the Lions on a huge stage in the state final four. They’ll need a plan for Jackson. Make the mistake of treating her like an afterthought and she’s liable to ruin your night.
Who To Watch: McGhee. Look, on first instinct you want to find a player who can unexpectedly impact this game and the Lions and Clippers both have a bunch of potential candidates. But after what McGhee did in the region final, where she was basically unstoppable for a large stretch of the second half? She’s the main attraction right now and if Grafton can’t elevate their game to hers, the Lions are going to give the Clippers huge problems. McGhee is essentially an unsolvable problem when she plays the way she did late against Monacan and she can hurt a team in so many ways on both ends of the floor. If she has flipped the switch into playoff mode like it looked like she did against Monacan and maintains it Wednesday against Grafton, the Clippers are going to need to do something incredibly special to counter McGhee.
The line: Louisa by 10. The Lions are now battle-tested after the region heavyweight fight with Monacan. They should be capable of rising to this challenge as well.
