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Behold the Pale Horse: Weekly Briefing Week 4

Western Albemarle (2-1) at Albemarle (2-1), 6:30 p.m. Friday

The Basics: Obviously at three games, it’s a small sample size, but these two teams appear to be strikingly similar in makeup right now. Strong running backs? Albemarle has Ebenezer McCarthy (with a dash of freshman Noah Grevious thrown in there), Western has Austin Shifflett. Stout defenses? Carson Tujague, Ross Bassett, Shifflett and company pitched a shutout for the Warriors last week against CHS while Adam Schantz, Nolan Pittsenberger and Zalen Foster did the same against Fluvanna County. Quick quarterbacks who can make things happen off of play action? Albemarle has junior Jake King and Western freshman Nathan Simon has emerged in the last two outings after an injury to Hudson Toll. Young but talented offensive lines? Yeah, they’ve both got those too. There’s definitely a mirror image quality to this game where whoever can stay truer to that shared identity of power run teams that lean on a stout defense will come out victorious. But there’s always the chance that the difference is the team who can find another strength like Will Townsend or Christian Humes for Albemarle or Joey Burch for Western at wideout. Still look for both teams to establish the run and play field position football. That’s just where both squads’ strengths lie. They even both have narrow contests with Monticello already on their record with a Shifflett-less Western coming up just short against the Mustangs while Albemarle surged late to put Monticello away. This one should be intriguing as usual, not to mention the fact that Albemarle is currently seeded second in Region 5D and with three games left is likely in control of its own playoff destiny as long as they keep winning while Western needs every win it can get to fight its way back into the playoff picture in Region 3C (eighth currently). This one almost always comes down to the last second and this year these squads are mirror images of one another. Expect fireworks down the stretch.

Key Matchup: Albemarle’s offensive line versus Western’s offensive line. It’s likely that this one comes down to which offensive line can better handle two impressive, fundamentally sound defenses that have been pretty stifling the last couple of weeks — Albemarle gave up 20 points on defense to an explosive Goochland team, but held them to seven in the first half and struggled to score on offense, leading to some fatigue in the second half. Western’s defense locked up Charlottesville last week and Fluvanna the week before, so the Albemarle offensive line has its work cut out for it too. Both groups sparked effective rushing attacks last week, so a big-time chance here to build some serious momentum. In the second half of the condensed season.

Who to Watch: Western’s Carson Tujague. The Warriors’ coaching staff promised to bring the tight end back to Crozet just before the season and they’ve delivered, particularly last week when Tujague made a huge difference for the Warriors as both a blocker and pass catcher against Charlottesville, scoring the first tight end touchdown by a Western player in maybe a decade. On top of that work at tight end, Tujague played a big time game on the edge defensively with several key stops including one that, with help from several teammates, effectively ended the game.

The line: Push. Only twice in the last 10 years has Jefferson District football’s answer to UNC-Duke in college basketball (with regards to intensity and razor thin margins) been decided by more than one score. 

 

Louisa County (3-0) at Fluvanna County (1-2), 6:30 p.m. Friday

The Basics: Louisa County had a bye week and now the Lions go toe-to-toe with border rival Fluvanna County and not surprisingly in the always stout Region 4B, the Lions still have work to do to secure a playoff spot. The Lions are fourth, so in position for a berth currently, but there are three 3-0 squads above them right now in Monacan, King George and Patrick Henry-Ashland. With just six games on the schedule there just isn’t much margin for error for any of those squads, especially with five one-loss teams sitting just behind the Lions. Louisa rolled 35-7 past Monticello in their last time out while Fluvanna absorbed a 13-0 shutout loss to Albemarle. In a normal year, Fluvanna would be in a good spot to be fighting for a playoff spot, but the Flucos would essentially need to run the table to get into the top four and getting that done against the Lions is a tall task. Kalep Shelton has ensured that the Louisa ground game is once again a fearsome challenge to contain as he scored four touchdowns against the Mustangs and is running with his usual physical style with low pad level that allows him to shake off second level defenders who don’t bring the same ferocity. Expect the Lions to feed Shelton early and often and if the Flucos load up against the run, quarterback Landon Wilson can make them pay through the air. The Lions are so multiple offensively that it’s going to be a major challenge for the Fluvanna defense. 

Key Matchup: Fluvanna’s offensive line takes on Louisa County’s dynamic front seven. As has been the case with the Lions’ other three games so far this season, this is likely the entire ballgame. Nobody has proven up to the task of protecting against the Lions’ front seven for four quarters. Eventually Eli Brooks or Qwenton Spellman or A.J. Proffitt or Lowell Johnson is bound to get home, bound to cause problems or bound to create havoc. And if it isn’t one of those four, there are a host of other Lions — including Shelton who doubles as a defensive threat — who can shake things up. Fluvanna’s offensive line is one of the district’s most experienced but they’ll have their work cut out for them all the same to protect quarterback Kobe Edmonds and open lanes for the Fluvanna ground game.

Who to Watch: Louisa County’s Jordan Smith. Make no mistake, Kalep Shelton is the Louisa County ground game’s main attraction and Landon Wilson is an emerging running threat in his own right. But in a program that has always had a multitude of options to carry the ball, Smith is emerging as a new threat after showing some serious flashes against both Orange County and Monticello including a 41-yard sprint for a touchdown two weeks ago against Monticello. Throw in the fact that Smith had a critical pass breakup late in the first half and is one of the area’s most impressive defensive backs this year and it’s clear that Louisa has another star. 

The line: Louisa by 17. The Lions had a week off, look for them to pick up where they left off.

 

 

 

Monticello (2-2) at Charlottesville (0-4), 6:30 p.m. Friday

The Basics: It seems like yesterday that this season started but both Monticello and Charlottesville are past the halfway mark now and the Mustangs are in full jockeying for playoff position mode. With only the top four teams in Region 3C getting into the region tournament, the Mustangs currently sit in the No. 6 slot, with five unbeaten teams above them and multiple threats that have three games left (including Western) just below them. Essentially, to have a shot, Monticello is going to need a win over the Black Knights and a win over Fluvanna on April 2 to have any shot. Luckily for the Mustangs, they seem to be figuring things out, with a strong second half defensive performance that followed a monster first half offensively against Orange in a thriller. With Will Trent putting it all together last week with huge plays in all three phases of the game, the Mustangs right now have another big-time threat outside Malachi Fields (who had another huge week too) that has to be accounted for. That’ll push the limits for a Charlottesville squad that is still trying to find a rhythm with a ton of young players still feeling their way through their first extensive varsity action. Still, the Charlottesville defense was stout, and Polo Hill, Eddison Duolo and Quincy Edwards have all shown promise in the ground game. They’re due to break off a few big runs after being held in check almost entirely by Western. They also now get a chance to play spoiler for the Mustangs, because an upset by the Black Knights would likely end any playoff hopes for Monticello. That means both squads have a lot to play for in what’s already an intense cross-town rivalry. Can the Black Knights put it all together this week and push Monticello to the brink? 

Key Matchup: The Black Knights’ front seven squares off with Malachi Fields. Charlottesville’s defense managed to prevent a ton of big plays by Western Albemarle last week, but couldn’t get off the field when it had to during a long march in the second half. Still, Hykeim Morton made an interception and the Black Knights tackled soundly enough to force Western to keep snapping the ball. Tackling soundly will be paramount against Fields and the dynamic dual threat could be problematic for the Black Knights who struggled to contain Landon Wilson and Paul Porier earlier this season. Can Charlottesville find a way to contain Fields? It’s easier typed than done. 

Who to Watch: Monticello’s Will Trent. After a performance like last week, Trent has to be the player to watch this week, just to see if he either can produce an encore or how Charlottesville adjusts to account for him with just a few games left in his high school career before he heads to UVa to compete on the track. Trent’s speed has always made him a potential matchup problem for opposing defenses and he’s been a consistently strong presence on defense during his career. But he fully delivered on his promise and potential last week, taking over the game with a rugged catch and run from Fields, a score on the ground, a kick return for a touchdown and a game-sealing interception. If Trent can keep his tear going, it’s going to be tough for the Black Knights to counter, and it could potentially open things up for Fields to go to work. 

The line: Monticello by 10. The Mustangs have won a couple of close calls, that gives them the edge here. 

 

Nelson (1-2) at William Campbell (1-2), 6 p.m. Friday

The Basics: These two teams run it back after opening up with one another in week one, a 38-7 win for William Campbell. Since that time, Nelson beat Altavista and William Campbell lost to Altavista so this one isn’t nearly as open and shut as it seemed after the opener. Nelson also has to lick its wounds and compete against Campbell after absorbing an 83-6 loss to Appomattox, the reigning state champion in Class 2, so there’s that to contend with. The Governors already bounced back from one loss back in week one to edge Altavista, so they’ll need to go right into that bag again in order to get on track here. 

Key Matchup: Nelson’s front seven takes on the William Campbell power run game. The Generals ground down the Governors in week one on a frigid night in Charlottesville. Nelson will have to find an answer to stopping the William Campbell rushing attack to turn that first result on its head. They’ve got some guys who can do that like Jaren Purvis who did manage to get some pressure up the middle in that contest, but they’ll need to take a big step forward from week one. 

Who to Watch: Nelson County’s Kavin Carter. Carter was one of the lone bright spots in last week’s blowout loss to Appomattox as he picked up a fumble and raced 34 yards for the Governors’ lone touchdown. Carter 

The line: Nelson County by 1. Let’s assume that week one was an aberration and the Governors bounce back from last week. If so, they can get the job done here in the rematch.

 

Madison County (0-3) at Luray (1-2), 7 p.m. Friday

The Basics: Madison County’s final scores simply aren’t going to tell the entire story this year as they continue to reshape the culture, approach and system under first-year head coach Larry Helmick who was also hamstrung by the pandemic in getting his squad ready for this first season. But little improvements are starting to bubble up and it’s clear that Madison is steadily making the adjustments and changes it needs to turn the program around. Common opponents in this one indicate Luray has the edge as they battled a Strasburg team that hung 48 on the Mountaineers before halftime last week to a 7-6 loss for Luray.  

Key Matchup: Madison’s front seven looks to contain Luray’s runners, including Austin Holloway. Hollway broke off a 77-yard touchdown on the first play of the game against Stonewall Jackson. Now Madison, who has struggled mightily against the run so far, has to try and figure out a way to hem him in.

Who to Watch: Madison County’s Jordan Morris. The Mountaineers may have found a running back to carry the load last week. Morris rushed for 110 yards last week and the 6-foot-1, 188-pound junior gives the Mountaineers a chance to diversify the offense around sophomore quarterback Wade Fox. If Morris can put together another strong effort, it’ll be another good indication things are moving in the right direction for Madison.

The line: Luray by 17. Madison is rebuilding and this version of the Mountaineers schedule would be far from a cake walk in any year.

 

Warren County (0-3) at William Monroe (1-2), Noon Saturday

The Basics: William Monroe had the defense going the way it wanted against Brentsville last week, holding the Tigers in check for the most part. But the offense couldn’t get on the scoreboard after an early field goal and a blocked kick put the defense up against the wall. Still the Dragons’ defense, with help from Isaiah Taylor up front and a Daelan Powell-Jackson pick, held Brentsville scoreless in the second half after Brentsville scored 22 points in the opening half. The offensive struggles bogged down the Dragons as they continue to re-tool in the wake of Alex Hoffman’s injury. Monroe has a history of flipping the switch and finding answers during the week, so look for a turnaround here against a winless Warren County squad that also lost to Brentsville 22-3 a few weeks ago. Monroe will likely have to fight for this one, but they should come out on top. 

Key Matchup: William Monroe’s wideouts take on the Warren County secondary. The Dragons have a pair of burners in Jeremy Savoie and Logan Barbour, and getting that tandem loose is going to be an important part of getting the offense in the end zone after Will Auer’s field goal was the Dragons’ lone score against Brentsville. If those two can create separation, it’ll got a long way toward keeping the sticks moving and that tenacious defense fresh. 

Who to Watch: William Monroe’s Isaiah Taylor. Taylor was a terror last week against Brentsville and a big reason the Dragons stayed within striking distance while they work things out on offense, with four sacks and five tackles for a loss. He rang up 10 total tackles, an impressive outing for the junior defensive end. If Taylor can keep that kind of production up, it’ll make a big difference when the Dragons’ offense comes back around. 

The line: Monroe by 7. Monroe has had a knack for closing seasons strong, they should get back on track here. 

 

Orange County (1-2) at Goochland (3-0) 1 p.m. Saturday

The Basics: Here’s a preview of what should be a budding rivalry when Goochland re-enters the Jefferson District next year. Along with Louisa and Fluvanna, Orange is one of three natural geographic rivals for the Bulldogs in the Jefferson. The Bulldogs are coming in red hot after winning 14-12 over Liberty Bealeton which is no easy task, especially on the road. Orange County is somehow one of the most talked about teams in Central Virginia this spring and yet just 1-2 on the season after a narrow loss to Monticello and a second half surge by Louisa in the Hornets’ season opener. Now Orange gets the unenviable task of taking on Goochland on the road, and they’ll need every bit of the explosive offense they flashed in the first half of both the Louisa and Monticello games and the entirety of the Charlottesville blowout to hang with Goochland. Look for quarterback Paul Poirier to try and extend plays with his legs, because odds are good the Bulldogs are going to manage to create pressure and force the Hornets’ quarterback out of the pocket. With Will Stratton and company flowing to the ball, there’s trouble in those situations for the Hornets too, so they’ll have to handle things better than they did in the second half against Louisa when the Lions’ pass rush was creating problems. Goochland needs to keep things rolling since they’re the No. 1 seed in Region 3B and holding on to that spot could give the Bulldogs a chance to host two playoff games in the first and second rounds. 

Key Matchup: Goochland’s secondary takes on Orange County’s Doug Newsome. When Orange quarterback Paul Poirier looks downfield, he’s mostly looking for Newsome, who’s electric speed means he’s open all the time. Poirier has the arm and the confidence to take advantage of Newsome’s speed, which hasn’t always been the case for the Hornets, and it’s paying off in a big way with Newsome hauling in nine catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns last week and three touchdowns against Charlottesville. The Bulldogs’ secondary boasts some talent of its own, and it likely means C.J. Towles will have an eye on the Orange County speedster. The best bet here honestly might be the Bulldogs’ pass rush getting home, including Enrique Alvarez who led the pack on a critical sack late against Liberty Bealeton. 

Who to Watch: Goochland’s Jason Woodson. This one’s easy as Woodson, a previously little known player outside the Bulldogs’ program, exploded last week as the hero for Goochland with a pick six and a 73-yard touchdown catch and run. Woodson gives the Goochland offense another threat that already had multiple options with Kam Holman, C.J. Towles and Connor Popielarz to carry the load. If Woodson can sustain that kind of playmaking ability on both sides of the ball, it just makes an already deep Goochland team that much tougher to defend. 

The line: Goochland by 7. The Bulldogs’ defense 

 

St. Albans at Fork Union, 1 p.m. 

The Basics: After playing last fall, Fork Union has scheduled two more games this spring, taking on St. Albans March 20 and Benedictine on March 27. The Blue Devils got started with a come-from-behind win over St. Michael the Archangel last fall but lost matchups to North Cross, Woodberry Forest, Portsmouth Christian and a rematch with SMA. Still, Fork Union got a lot of what it wanted to accomplish, getting a chance for the Blue Devils’ players to build tape, increase their chances of being recruited and improve their game under the most restrictive of circumstances possible while most programs were delaying a season until just a couple of weeks ago. It was a pretty impressive feat all things considered, playing half the number of games that FUMA usually plays in fall. Now they’ll take on a St. Albans squad that plays some top notch programs year in and year out and could include Temple-bound wideout Jaden Coffen. 

Key Matchup: Fork Union’s offensive line takes on St. Albans’ front seven. Aaron Reese gives the Blue Devils a solid building block up front, but that unit has to find a way to protect FUMA’s quarterbacks and clear more lanes for the ground game than they did this fall for the Blue Devils to be more successful. 

Who to Watch: Fork Union’s V’Jon Hampton. Hampton was looking forward to getting back on the field this spring shortly after the Blue Devils’ loss to Woodberry that ended their fall campaign and now the running back/defensive back gets another chance to test himself. Look for Hampton to be a focal point on both sides of the ball. He rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a junior and he’s key to moving the ball this spring.

The line: Fork Union by 1. The Blue Devils have a shot at getting their spring two-game swing off to a strong start here.

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